New IMI policy briefing on what we learn from uncertainty
- 19 May 2011
The Global Migration Futures project has published a 2-page briefing on which factors are most uncertain when thinking about North Africa in 2035, and which of these factors are likely to have the greatest impact on migration
IMI's Global Migration Futures project employs an innovative scenario-based methodology normally found in business contexts.
Asking questions about uncertainties is a fundamental step in using the scenario methodology to study future migration in North Africa. Because conventional futures studies tend to focus on relative ‘certainties’, they can
ignore key migration drivers which are more difficult to predict.
The purpose of the scenarios methodology is to expand our imagination about future developments by creating scenarios around key uncertainties. It helps us to identify which factors we should pay most attention to when exploring future migration patterns and trends and appropriate policy responses.