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Mathias Czaika and Mogens Hobolth analyse bilateral asylum and visa policies on migrant flows to 29 European states in the 2000s, finding that an increase in asylum and short-stay visa rejections raises the number of irregular migrants into Europe

New research published in European Union Politics investigates the unintended impact of restrictive asylum and visa policies on potential and rejected asylum seekers.

Mathias Czaika and Mogens Hobolth analyse bilateral asylum and visa policies on migrant flows to 29 European states in the 2000s, and find evidence of a significant deflection into irregularity at work.

Estimates suggest that a 10 per cent increase in asylum rejections raises the number of irregular migrants by on average 2 per cent to 4 per cent. Similarly, a 10 per cent increase in short-stay visa rejections leads to a 4 to 7 per cent increase in irregular border entries. The authors further identify significant nuances in the impact of restrictive asylum and visa policies on the number of apprehensions ‘at the border’ versus ‘on territory’.

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