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Between January – August 2012, the Global Migration Futures project of the International Migration Institute and Regional Mixed Migration Secretariat in Nairobi collaborated to create scenarios to explore potential futures drivers and patterns of migration in the Horn of Africa and Yemen

Through this initiative, IMI and RMMS sought to promote discussions among migration experts and stakeholders about longer-term developments in the region. The final report is now available to read on our website.

This report:

Introduces the core elements of the scenario methodology and the role of experts and stakeholders in the development of scenarios

Reviews past and present migration dynamics and patterns in the region

Discusses trends that are significant in shaping migration and for which researchers are relatively certain – based on available data and knowledge – will continue through 2030 – e.g. population growth

Explores the factors that are highly uncertain in terms of how they will take shape in the future, and that therefore need to be monitored

Presents two scenarios of possible futures in the region, their potential consequences for migration, as well as offers a number of insights and important questions for future migration research and policymaking.

The project was sponsored by the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office via the Danish Refugee Council as well as the Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford. Support for the scenario-building workshop was provided by the International Organization for Migration.

Read the full report